Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Wednesday, January 25, 2006
And yet another prediction pretty obviously going poorly: Alito's vote total. There are still purportedly 22 undecided Democrats (plus Jeffords) but the overwhelming majority will vote against Alito. There are only three real questions: will the Democrats actually filibuster; if not, how many Democrat votes will Alito finally get; and will there be any GOP defections? I think the answer to the first question is still clearly "no." Whether Alito gets more than 60 "yea" votes total, though, I am no longer sure of.

Of course, I predicted a couple of weeks ago that Alito would get 70 votes; I predicted that the only defections from the Roberts "yea" camp of 78 would be: Dodd, Feingold, Kohl, Leahy, Levin, Murray and Wyden, with the possible addition of Carper, Salazar and Chafee among the defectors possibly offset by Menendez voting "yea." So far, of my 7-10 defectors, 6 have already declared against Alito and 4 (Levin, Murray, Carper and Chafee) have not declared. But 2 that I thought would vote "yea" - Baucus and Nelson of Florida - have already declared against. The most likely to vote to confirm among the undeclared are, I think, Pryor, Lincoln, Landrieu, Dorgan, Conrad and Byrd which - assuming Chafee is the only GOP Senator to vote against - would bring the total to 60. Tradesports now puts only a 24% chance of Alito getting more than 60 votes. That sounds like low odds to me, but not by much, and the odds of him getting more than 63 votes are very low indeed. 58-63 is probably a decent market on how many votes he gets.