In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

 
My guess as to probable nominee to replace O'Connor, in descending order of likelihood:

• Gonzales. Goes without saying - even if he's less than 50%, what one nominee could be a more likely candidate? The odds that Bush appoints him to the Court are extremely high. The only real question is whether he does so now, or to replace Rehnquist, or as his third nominee should he get the opportunity.
• Luttig. Edges out Garza because Bush might be saving the Hispanic "slot" (horrible way to talk) for Gonzales later on.
• Garza. Lot of buzz about him, and clearly acceptable to the base.
• Roberts. My second choice personally after McConnell, but seems a bit lower down on the President's list.
• Clement. If Bush thinks he needs to nominate a woman. Which I don't think he does. Otherwise, much less likely, I think.
• McConnell. Seems to be much lower on the President's list than on mine. Don't know why. Hope it's not Bush v. Gore; that would be truly petty, particularly given that McConnell's criticisms were spot-on.
• Alito. Similar to Scalia, but no one seems to be mentioning him, so I assume he's not being mentioned. Must be he's not from Texas.
• Jones. If he wants to nominate a woman, and for some reason wants to pass on Clement (and have a bigger fight on his hands).
• Cornyn. I actually think this is vanishingly unlikely, but people keep talking about him, he's from Texas, former Texas AG, liked by conservatives, a sitting Senator whom, his colleagues would be unlikely to filibuster - so who knows?
• Wilkinson. I strongly doubt it, because he's over 60 and probably too well-liked by people the President doesn't trust. Seems like a good guy, though.
• Owen. Much too soon after her confirmation to the 5th circuit, and a sure-fire big fight. Why not go with Clement, who'll be marginally easier? I don't see it.
• Olson. I think this is extraordinarily unlikely, but I suppose it isn't impossible. Another very decent guy, by reputation.
• Brown. Much too soon after her confirmation to the DC circuit. And she's probably the most controversial person the President could pick. Not gonna happen.
• Hatch. Not. Gonna. Happen. Sorry.

posted by Noah at 2:16 PM