Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

Site Meter This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Based on recent trading on Tradesports, the next Supreme Court Justice is much more likely to be a woman than to be Hispanic.

Hispanic possibilities:
Garza: mid-market 20.0% chance
Gonzales: mid-market 10.2% chance
Estrada: mid-market 3.0% chance
TOTAL: mid-market 33.2% chance

Female possibilities:
Brown: mid-market 10.2% chance
Clement: mid-market 11.3% chance
Jones: mid-market 12.7% chance
Owen: mid-market 13.6% chance
TOTAL: mid-market 47.8% chance

All the gals have been moving up in recent days, and the Hispanic choices - particularly Gonzales - moving down.

Not that these guys know anything, mind you. But for the record, the move started happening before Friday.

If I understand the contract, by the way, it pays out 100 if a given person is the *next* person to be nominated to the Supreme Court. I'm interested how Tradesports would handle settlement if, say, there's another retirement and more than one nominee is announced *simultaneously.*

Just wondering.