Gideon's Blog |
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Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Based on recent trading on Tradesports, the next Supreme Court Justice is much more likely to be a woman than to be Hispanic. Hispanic possibilities: Garza: mid-market 20.0% chance Gonzales: mid-market 10.2% chance Estrada: mid-market 3.0% chance TOTAL: mid-market 33.2% chance Female possibilities: Brown: mid-market 10.2% chance Clement: mid-market 11.3% chance Jones: mid-market 12.7% chance Owen: mid-market 13.6% chance TOTAL: mid-market 47.8% chance All the gals have been moving up in recent days, and the Hispanic choices - particularly Gonzales - moving down. Not that these guys know anything, mind you. But for the record, the move started happening before Friday. If I understand the contract, by the way, it pays out 100 if a given person is the *next* person to be nominated to the Supreme Court. I'm interested how Tradesports would handle settlement if, say, there's another retirement and more than one nominee is announced *simultaneously.* Just wondering. |