Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Based on recent trading on Tradesports, the next Supreme Court Justice is much more likely to be a woman than to be Hispanic.
Garza: mid-market 20.0% chance
Gonzales: mid-market 10.2% chance
Estrada: mid-market 3.0% chance
TOTAL: mid-market 33.2% chance
Brown: mid-market 10.2% chance
Clement: mid-market 11.3% chance
Jones: mid-market 12.7% chance
Owen: mid-market 13.6% chance
TOTAL: mid-market 47.8% chance
All the gals have been moving up in recent days, and the Hispanic choices - particularly Gonzales - moving down.
Not that these guys know anything, mind you. But for the record, the move started happening before Friday.
If I understand the contract, by the way, it pays out 100 if a given person is the *next* person to be nominated to the Supreme Court. I'm interested how Tradesports would handle settlement if, say, there's another retirement and more than one nominee is announced *simultaneously.*