Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Okay, I'm going to bed. Four years ago, I went to bed thinking Gore had probably won. Woke up and found out nobody knew who won. Tonight, I'm going to bed thinking Bush won. He's up several points in Ohio and New Mexico and there no sign of either state turning aroud. That gets him 274, just 3 more than last time. Tomorrow morning I'll find out if he squeaked by in Wisconsin, Iowa or Nevada to pad that total. If he gets all three, my September Bush prediction of 296 Electoral Votes will be spot on. (In fact, every state would be spot on.) But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he lost all three of those states, albeit by close margins.
Things look very good for the GOP in the Senate meanwhile: pickups in Georgia, both Carolinas, Louisiana, and it looks likely for Florida and South Dakota, though the latter two will surely go to recounts and potentially litigation. Offsetting losses in Illinois (certain) and Colorado (likely) mean a 3 or 4 seat pickup depending on what happens in Alaska. That's 2 seats better than I thought back in September.
Three thoughts re: likely Democratic recriminations tomorrow:
- Iowa is now absolutely tied. I really hope Bush wins it, just so that Democrats can think the following. John Kerry became our nominee because Iowans thought he was the most electable candidate. The Iowa Democrats couldn't even predict who would be most electable to their fellow Iowans! Why on earth are we listening to these people?
- John Edwards was picked as the Veep nominee because he'd help in the South. We lost every Southern state, including Florida, and every Southern Senate seat, including Edwards' old seat. Meanwhile, we lost Nevada (maybe) and New Mexico by squeakers, while we won (maybe) the Colorado Senate seat running a guy named Salazar who was credible with both Hispanics and rural whites. Maybe with Bill Richardson on the ticket, the whole Southwest would have been in play.
- We ran a lousy campaign with a lousy nominee against a wartime President with a fairly decent if not spectacular economy and all the advantages of incumbency and we came pretty darn close to winning. This party (the Democrats) still has something of a tailwind. If we could figure out how to fly this plane, we could go places.