In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.
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Tuesday, September 28, 2004
By the way, following up from yesterday's post on the Senate, here's my pre-debate prediction for the Electoral College and the race for the Presidency: Bush: 296/Kerry 242. Here's the state-by-state breakdown:
Bush by solid margins:
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Missouri (11)
North Carolina (15)
Tennessee (11)
Virginia (13)
Subtotal: 75; Running total: 217
Close, but not so as you'd need a recount; Bush wins:
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Subtotal: 62; Running total: 279, enough for victory
Bush by a whisker; recount fight potential if these states prove the margin of victory:
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Subtotal: 17; Running total: 296
Don't bother counting - it's Kerry:
District of Columbia: 3
Hawaii: 4
Massachusetts: 12
New York: 31
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Subtotal: 57
Close, but not so as you'd need a recount; Kerry wins:
Oregon: 7
Pennsylvania: 21
Washington: 11
Subtotal: 39; Running total: 224
Kerry by a whisker; recount fight potential if these states prove the margin of victory:
Maine: 4
Minnesota: 10
New Hampshire: 4
Subtotal: 18; Running total: 242
Of course, I reserve the right to completely change my predictions based on the debates . . . or based on anything else. And obviously the "barely" states I'm allocating based on my lucky 8 ball; it could easily be Kerry in New Mexico or Bush in New Hampshire. I do think the above Electoral College prediction is consistent with a clear but not overwhelming Bush margin in the popular vote of two to four points. If the margin gets up into the 5 to 6 point range, though, some of the close Kerry states will tip over into Bush's column.
