Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Tuesday, September 28, 2004
By the way, following up from yesterday's post on the Senate, here's my pre-debate prediction for the Electoral College and the race for the Presidency: Bush: 296/Kerry 242. Here's the state-by-state breakdown:

Don't bother counting - it's Bush:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Wyoming (3)
Subtotal: 142

Bush by solid margins:
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Missouri (11)
North Carolina (15)
Tennessee (11)
Virginia (13)
Subtotal: 75; Running total: 217

Close, but not so as you'd need a recount; Bush wins:
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Subtotal: 62; Running total: 279, enough for victory

Bush by a whisker; recount fight potential if these states prove the margin of victory:
Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Subtotal: 17; Running total: 296

Don't bother counting - it's Kerry:
District of Columbia: 3
Hawaii: 4
Massachusetts: 12
New York: 31
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Subtotal: 57

Kerry by solid margins:
California: 55
Connecticut: 7
Delaware: 3
Illinois: 21
Maryland: 10
Michigan: 17
New Jersey: 15
Subtotal: 128; Running total: 185

Close, but not so as you'd need a recount; Kerry wins:
Oregon: 7
Pennsylvania: 21
Washington: 11
Subtotal: 39; Running total: 224

Kerry by a whisker; recount fight potential if these states prove the margin of victory:
Maine: 4
Minnesota: 10
New Hampshire: 4
Subtotal: 18; Running total: 242

Of course, I reserve the right to completely change my predictions based on the debates . . . or based on anything else. And obviously the "barely" states I'm allocating based on my lucky 8 ball; it could easily be Kerry in New Mexico or Bush in New Hampshire. I do think the above Electoral College prediction is consistent with a clear but not overwhelming Bush margin in the popular vote of two to four points. If the margin gets up into the 5 to 6 point range, though, some of the close Kerry states will tip over into Bush's column.

We'll see what actually happens in 5 weeks, eh?