Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Friday, August 27, 2004
Beautiful column by John Derbyshire about WWI.

I'm one of those who tended to make China-Germany comparisons, and I agree with Derb's reasons for faulting the analogy. The other analogy I tended to make is China today vs. Japan in the early years of its empire-building. But both analogies have big problems, I don't deny it.

One demurral on the subject of demographics, though: yes, China is now at below-replacement fertility, and as such should be reluctant to start wars that will cost lots of people. But: China still has lots and lots of people to spare. And, specifically, it has a hugely imbalanced sex ratio, due to the murder of newborn girls. 50 million unmarried young men can create a lot of trouble.