Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Monday, March 22, 2004
 
Follow-up: I basically agree with the following article in the Jerusalem Post, regarding the likely impact of the Yassin assassination. Terrorism will certainly increase in Israel, and probably abroad as well. We'll see a lot of uncoordinated, loner attacks. I suspect you will see Hamas disintegrate as an organization in the medium term, because of the loss of pivotal leadership, but I don't expect that to result in the diminution of terrorism over the same term. Splinter organizations and new organizations will arise to carry out similar attacks. So long as funding and arms can be acquired, terrorism will continue from Gaza. The one with the most to lose is Rajoub, who would like to be strongman in Gaza; he was threatened by Hamas, but he will be more threatened by the chaos to follow. The one with the most to gain is Arafat, who is now freed from any possible pressure to talk to Israel, and also freed from one of the greatest organized threats to his rule.

The question remains: what is the overarching strategy? Hamas was the only organization capable of running Gaza after an Israeli pullout. Granted that a Hamas state in Gaza would have been a disaster, worse in many ways than the Hizballah mini-state in southern Lebanon. So assuming Hamas begins to unravel without Yassin, who will govern Gaza now? All answers to the question are bad.