Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Wednesday, February 25, 2004
 
This chart is kind of interesting. It shows the Bush/Kerry and Bush/Edwards polls by state. I don't interpret it quite the way RCP does, though. I think the numbers look pretty good for Bush. RCP worries he's vulnerable in Indiana and Kansas, states he's going to win no matter what. What I note is that he's got a strong lead in Arizona (a must-win state that the GOP is slipping in), and that he's in a strong position in Michigan (winning against Edwards, close against Kerry) and Pennsylvania (tied with Kerry in the most recent poll). Both of these are states that Gore won, and that Kerry must win to be elected. By the same token, it's clear that Bush is going to have a real problem holding on to New Hampshire, and that fantasies about making a play for Washington State - to say nothing of California - are just that: fantasies. Bush needs to hold on to his base and make a strong push for every Midwestern state except unwinnable Illinois. If this is what Bush looks like state-by-state with national polls showing him losing, he's not in such bad shape.