Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Thursday, September 11, 2003
 
One more thing: the expectation that, with Arafat in exile, a more moderate leadership could take the reins is almost certain to be disappointed. Anyone who directly challenged Arafat's supremacy would risk assassination at the hands of the Fatah Tanzim. So I do not expect anyone to be willing to assume leadership of the P.A. in Arafat's absence or after his violent demise. The most likely outcome of Arafat's expulsion - or his arrest, or his assassination - would be the re-imposition of the Israeli occupation, including the full civilian administration. At this point, I do not see a plausible alternative to doing that. But if you want to know why Israel continues to hesitate, THAT is why - they do not want to reimpose the occupation, with all the costs and obligations and diplomatic consequences that entails.