Thursday, January 09, 2003
Follow up on the last post: taking the most recent polls as a benchmark, if the Likud loses 4 more seats, with 2 going to Shas, 1 to Shinui, 1 to National Union and 0 to Labor (which would pretty much be a continuation of recent trends), then:
(a) Labor will "beat" Likud in the election;
(b) Labor will be unable to form a government of the Left unless either Shinui or both Haredi parties are willing to sit in coalition with Labor, Meretz and the Arab parties (an extremely unlikely outcome);
(c) Likud will be unable to form a government of the Right with either the Haredim or Shinui (those coalitions yield only 60 seats);
(d) Therefore, if they want to avoid new elections, Likud and Labor would have to form a unity government. But since Labor "won" the election, they will be in a strong position to dominate negotiations about the nature of the government, and Likud will be the ones blamed if they refuse to join that government on reasonable terms.
That's how weird it's getting, folks.