Friday, December 20, 2002
Looks increasingly likely Lott will go down. He's losing people like Pete Domenici, an "old bull" who might have been expected to support Lott on the grounds of Senatorial fellowship and who has a lot to lose now if Lott survives.
By my count, Lott appears to have locked up 10 votes (plus himself) and Frist the same, with two more votes highly likely. Here's the list:
There are probably other solid Lott votes I'm not counting. Here's the Frist rundown:
McCain (AZ) - hates Lott, so very likely, though he hasn't said anything yet that I'm aware of
Thomas (WY) - hasn't said anything, but rumored to be a Frist vote
If I were Frist, these would be my top targets to convert to my side: Senators close to the President (Bush wants Lott out); Senators whom Frist helped elect this year (they owe him); Senators vulnerable to a strong black voter turnout next time (voting for Lott will piss them off); Senators identified as strongly Christian (they're probably the most offended by what Lott said); and Senators identified as more liberal (they probably hate Lott the most). So here's my list of targets:
That gives him a couple-vote margin for victory.