Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Monday, November 04, 2002
More election stuff: RealClear Politics gives the Senate to the GOP. I think that's optimistic, even given the clear momentum on the GOP side. But I do agree that the odds of Democrat pickups have gotten much longer.

I think that Arkansas and Missouri are pretty clearly going to switch parties. I think in New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas, South Carolina and Iowa the seats will be retained by the current party. That leaves 6 races that will go down to the wire: Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire and South Dakota. Of these six, four are held by Democrats currently, and late-deciding voters tend to break against the incumbent. (Of course, in Minnesota and New Hampshire, there is no incumbent.) So assume all of these are dead heats, and the GOP has momentum, the Democrats will have a hard time picking up seats. But a 2-seat gain for the GOP - not counting a Louisiana runoff - also strikes me as a long-shot; I think that Colorado and New Hampshire will go Democrat, Minnesota and South Dakota will go Republican, and Louisiana will have a runoff. So whether the GOP controls the Senate right off the bat or whether they have to wait for the Louisiana results depends on the race in Georgia. Which I know very little about.