Tuesday, November 05, 2002
Meanwhile, if this story about budding electoral alliances is right, my other predictions for the next election will turn out to have been wrong.
For the record: I thought Yisra'el B'Aliyah would run in an alliance with Likud, and that Eitam would bring his party into alliance with National Union-Yisra'el Beiteinu to form a single far-right bloc. Meimad I expected to run alone and disappear as a party. The alliances described in the article make no sense - with the exception of the Shinui bid to form a liberal bloc, which makes a lot of sense, at least for Tommy Lapid. Meimad's entire reason for being is to be an alternative to the NRP. Why run with the NRP? Yisrael B'Aliyah, meanwhile, has been declining because the more extreme right-wing immigrants are voting for Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party while others have been willing to vote Labor, Likud, Shinui, Democratic Choice, or what-have-you. Sharansky's future depends on leveraging his stature and talents into a role in a major party, not running an immigrant party forever. And why would he want to run with Liberman who is (a) to his right; (b) running a stronger party; and (c) running a party no longer exclusively identified with immigrants but with a broader far-right electoral agenda.
Anyhow, we'll see.