Monday, November 04, 2002
If this story is true, and the Dems lose the Senate, I think we can say goodbye to the Bush-Gore rematch scenario for '04.
So who benefits if Gore drops out? If the Dems lose the Senate, Daschle is no longer a Presidential contender. That leaves Lieberman, Edwards, Kerry and Gephardt among the most-mentioned Democrats. I don't think Lieberman has a chance of winning the primaries; the left wing will never trust him. I think Edwards is a lightweight and that will show on the trail. Gephardt has a better shot this year than he's ever had, but he's still a proven loser and, frankly, I'm not convinced the left wing trusts him either. He's a conviction economic nationalist; he's less convincing on left-liberal shibboleths. My money would be on John Kerry: smart, rich, good-looking, war record, and solidly liberal. There's no faction in the party who needs to oppose him.
Of course, I thought Bob Kerry was going to win in 1992. And I thought Phil Gramm was going to win in 1996. So I obviously know nothing.