In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

 
I pretty much agree with DEBKAfile's analysis of the upcoming Israeli elections. Sharon is in the strongest position he could be in. He's favored to win the primary and overwhelmingly favored to win the general election - a recent poll of who they would like to see as Prime Minister puts Sharon in the lead with 34%, Netanyahu second with 29%, 15% for Mitzna and the rest of the pack in single-digits. In other words, nearly 2/3 of the country wants Sharon or someone to the right of Sharon as Prime Minister. The only real question is how big Likud will be versus the far-right and Shas. I suspect Sharon builds on his current expected number of seats for Likud, particularly if he gets smaller parties to run on a unified slate with Likud as Gesher and Tsomet did in 1996; top candidates would be Gesher, Yisrael B'Aliyah and Center. Let's hope Bibi can muster up enough patriotism to try to build a big Likud margin after he loses the primary, rather than conniving to increase the totals for Shas and National Union, and thereby increase his leverage over Sharon post-election.
posted by Noah at 3:42 PM