Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Friday, June 28, 2002
Winds of Change notes that other nations are starting to build aircraft carriers. What with all the talk of 4GW and WMD or whatever, we can lose sight of how crucial America's complete naval dominance has been to our ability to project force and thereby protect peace. In 20 years, we will not have that overwhelming dominance, though we will still be the world's strongest naval power. I'm very bullish on India, and expect them to build out a first-class military on land, sea and air over the next 20 years. Hopefully they'll be on our side all that time. I am also bullish on France, whether or not the European Union holds together. That's not a good thing, because I think it is unlikely that France will be an American ally in 20 years - and they will likely have the strongest military in Europe, if they don't control all of Europe's militaries through the EU. I'm short China only because I think the country is headed for an economic implosion. But they will spend a lot of money on defense between now and the day of reckoning, and war with China has got to be counted as very likely and the most dangerous threat to America (far outstripping al Qaeda and the rest of the terrorist loonies). Any success China has in building out its naval capacity dramatically raises the short-term chance of war on that front. Remember that the major catalyst for British policy turning anti-German in the lead-up to World War I was the German ambition to build a world-class Navy. This stuff still matters.