Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Thursday, May 09, 2002
STRATFOR has a downbeat piece on a prospective Gaza campaign. I am more inclined to give this credence than not. Gaza is not the West Bank: it's more dense, more militant, more dangerous. Picture Jenin times 10. The mortal casualty ratio in Jenin was something like 2:1. In Gaza, unless Israel engages in wholesale bombing - which no one exepects - it could be more like 1:1. And, given the number of targets, that could be a very high military toll. Israel has been playing down how big the incursion is going to be. Is that because they want to lull the Gazans into complacency, or because they are genuinely planning something more on the scale of commando raids rather than an invasion? If the latter, what are the targets? The only high-profile targets belong to the P.A. infrastructure, to Mohammed Dahlan, not to "Sheik" Yassin's Hamas. This could be very ugly indeed.