Gideon's Blog

In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

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Thursday, May 23, 2002
Marginal improvement in news from the subcontinent. Musharraf is talking about sharing power with an elected Prime Minister, and Vajpayee is talking less like a man determined to go to war and more like he's just preparing for the eventuality of war (an important difference). DEBKA isn't freaking out about Indo-Pak war, which would be comforting except that their fretting that Mughniyeh is planning to explode dirty nukes in major American, European and Israeli cities. Anyhow, I still think the odds are strongly against a full-scale war, much less a nuclear war, between India and Pakistan. India, after all, has no particular interest in conquering Pakistan, and Pakistan can't win a conventional war by using nukes on the Indian army. India can't simply sit there and watch terrorists attack it across the line of control; the odds still seem good to me for some kind of limited border war. But I think the most likely end of that war is not nuclear escalation but the fall of the Musharraf government - potentially to Islamists. And then the problems really start. I remain much more worried that Pakistan is the conduit by which terrorist groups will finally get their hands on atomic weapons. That strikes me still as a much more likely path to the actual use of the Pakistani bomb than in combat against India. But we'll see.