In direct contravention of my wife's explicit instructions, herewith I inaugurate my first blog. Long may it prosper.

For some reason, I think I have something to say to you. You think you have something to say to me? Email me at: gideonsblogger -at- yahoo -dot- com

 
DEBKA's Machiavellian speculations have taken a more plausible turn. They suggest that the plan underfoot is to bring Jordan and Egypt far more closely into the management of the Palestinian territories. The idea would be to either exile Arafat or send him to Gaza, and put an Egyptian presence there to manage the security forces. This would put Egypt on the line to prevent terror attacks on Israel, and, as Egypt has no desire to get into a war with Israel, that would give them a big incentive to do their job. (Of course, it would give them a bigger incentive not to take the job in the first place). Ditto for Jordan and the Palestinian population centers on the West Bank (Areas A and B, with presumably some rights to traverse the territories generally). They also have a good piece on how Jordan is likely to be most threatened by a potential U.S. war on Iraq - that is to say, threatened by the war itself, not by a U.S. victory, which would be enormously favorable to Jordanian interests (in contrast to Saudi Arabia, the country with the most to lose by a U.S. victory in Iraq). The fact that Jordan has remained quiet suggests that they are still convinced the Americans mean business.

By the way, it will be interesting to see if the Le Pen upset has any impact on France's obstructionism vis-a-vis America's Iraq campaign. I haven't read anything about it.
posted by Noah at 10:22 PM